Information Markets vs. Opinion Pools: An Empirical Comparison
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relative forecast accuracy of information markets versus expert aggregation. We lever- age a unique data source of almost 2000 people’s subjective probability...
View ArticleUsing Prediction Markets to Support IT Project Management
Abstract: Developing obtainable, clear and measurable work expectations early in the project planning process is an important part of successful project management. Converting these expectations into...
View ArticlePrediction Markets for Corporate Governance
Abstract: Building on the success of prediction markets at forecasting political elections and other matters of public interest, firms have made increasing use of prediction markets to help make...
View ArticleHarvard study shows value of prediction markets in scientific research
Paper courtesy of Harvard’s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics by Johan Almenberg, Ken Kittlitz and Thomas Pfeiffer Abstract Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential...
View ArticleForecasting Consumer Products Using Prediction Markets
Thesis on the effectiveness of Prediction Markets as a forecasting tool by Kai Trepte and Rajaram Narayanaswamy Graduate students in the Engineering Systems Division at the Massachusetts Institute of...
View ArticlePrediction Markets Improve upon the Scientific Method
Okay, maybe the title is a bit overblown, but Consensus Point Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Ken Kittlitz was second author (with Johan Almenberg and Thomas Pfeiffer) on a recent study at...
View ArticleRobin Hanson on Prediction Markets as Decision Tools
Just before the end of the year, we read Ian Ayres’s musings on prediction markets over at Freakonomics. Writing on his personal blog, Consensus Point Chief Scientist Robin Hanson responded to the post...
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